9/9/14-Apple is "all in"

As you surely already know, Apple is planning a little media event this coming Tuesday. Actually, it's gonna be huge. They have set up at the Flint Center which holds about 4 times as many people as the previous several events. They have also built a huge white temporary building on the grounds. Apparently, there is gonna be so much stuff it won't fit in the building. Perhaps, Cowboy stadium in Dallas was booked...

(Photo credit Apple insider)

I've said in previous posts that this will be Tim Cooks last chance to show that Apple can truly innovate and redefine product categories. There are numerous rumors about the new phones, the iWatch, a payment system with NFC (near field connection), and possible updates to iPad. The web is buzzing with articles and free publicity for Apple. 

I'll give Mr. Cook some credit at this point. He has managed to generate a free pre-event media frenzy that Steve would have been proud of. Also he deserves more credit for being "all in". It seems he recognizes what many (including myself) have said about how he is running out of time to show some Apple magic and he is going for it - big time. Apple is not trying to dampen expectations, in fact they are doing the opposite calling the new lineup "their best product pipeline in 25 years". 

I will be watching the presentation live this Tuesday with millions of others - hoping to see Tim Cook take his team 97 yards in the 2 minute warning for a thrilling, buzzer-beating touchdown topped off with a 2 point conversion to win the Super Bowl of tech. 

I'm also anxiously awaiting an homage to Steve Jobs- "oh, there is just one more thing"...

Quiet before the storm?

This is sort of a slow time for concrete news related to Apple inc. 

The Beats acquisition has not yet materialized any new products or services. ITunes Radio is still plodding along. There have been a few boring product refreshes and price drops. 

Rumors are flying regarding the upcoming iPhone 6 and iWatch.  The only product that would classify as a new category is the iWatch. The clock is ticking for Tim Cook to show the kind of innovative "magic" that Steve Jobs brought to the company. (See earlier post). 

Tick, tock,

Tim Cook,

Tick, tock ...

It's hard to imagine what an iWatch could do for users that isn't already offered in some way. Will it be truly innovative or simply provide convenience by integrating several existing functionalities in a nice new package? Remember it was Steve Jobs who said you can't innovate through focus groups by asking people what they want- "people don't know what they want until you show it to them". 

I envision 2 possibilities regarding the iWatch 

1. Upon its announcement it is viewed as too expensive and not worth it (exactly like the iPod at its announcement). However, once people start using it they won't want to go back to the old way of doing things again. 

2. It will be viewed as very cool and look great, but have limited actual utility. User base will be limited to technophiles and fitness nuts initially. 

Time will tell. Looks while we will get answers around October if this year...

WWDC follow up...

I went out on a limb in my last post and predicted the release of the iWatch in tandem with the Healthbook application. Apple did announce the Healthbook portion but not the iWatch.  I guess the watch will be coming later this year. 

The announcements were still fairly significant with strong developer slant towards the software/programming side of the business. Remember though, Apple's strength is in its command of both software and hardware. I saw a lot of software...

Tim Cook is doing a great job with Apple, BUT I think isfSteve were still running the show there would have been "one more thing". Tim has yet to have a defining moment. He has less and less time to prove that his Apple can do what Steve's Apple did - repeatedly. Essentially he is still riding the wave that Steve Jobs created. He's riding it very well in fact. He's a skilled technician to be sure. But he's not leading Apple into new exciting territory with products that no one has ever seen before. 

By my calculations, he's got no longer than 6 months to prove me and the rest of the world wrong. I'm not saying that will the end if his term as CEO or that Apple while tumble back into near oblivion. But, after that, we'll just have to accept that the magic of the Steve Jobs era is gone forever. 

I've got to think that Steve would have gone ballistic at the idea of a keynote being streamed to millions of people around the world watching someone... wait for it... type programming code. 

WWDC predictions

Today is the big day... maybe. Tim Cook takes the stage this morning with what Apple is calling "exciting announcements". 

Here is my list of what I think we'll see

1. iOS 8 announcement with some tweaks. I am not expecting anything too radical except maybe Beats Streaming integrated. There are rumors we will see the new Healthbook app, BUT it would only make sense if it is released in tandem with the rumored iWatch. We'll touch on that later. 

2.  OS X UPDATE:  This will probably be code named Yosemite and should be mostly a cosmetic makeover similar to the shift from iOS 6 to 7. 

3. Beats update. No new news here. 

Here are some other things I think we will see at some point this year (maybe later today)

1.  New iPad with Touch ID

2.  Updated iMac 

3. New iPhone. 

4. iWatch. 

Of these the least certain is the iWatch. But, I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict it will be announced today. 

I picture Tim Cook pretending to wrap up the show ala Steve Jobs, then pausing before he says "there is just one more thing ..."

Check back later for my self critique.  

Beats update...

In my last post I talked about why I think Apple is acquiring Beats- because Apple's current headphones are throwaway junk. 

As it turns out, Tim Cook says that Apple acquired Beats mostly for the streaming music service. They plan to keep the Beats brand alive and continue with the headphone business.  They also plan to keep iTunes Radio going alongside Beats streaming music service. I'm not sure what advantage they gain by having 2 different music streaming services, especially if they believe the new one they just bought is so much better.  Nevermind that the new service has only 250000 active users. 

Apple should have success marketing and driving up subscribers for Beats. If that happens I think it will be at the expense of iTunes Radio subscribers and listeners. 

Anyway, Tim Cook didn't say much about my headphones prediction. However it does sound like Jimmy Iovine agrees with me when he said smartphone makers include the earbuds to "make sure the sound works". Ouch.  Time will tell if Apple's existing headphone line gets a massive revamp in the upcoming Apple/Beats era. 

Why Beats?

This one is a little bit if a head scratcher. You can read the tech news and quickly get several opinions as to why Apple would pay $3.2 billion for Beats. 

Some say they bought Beats for the revenue of the headphone business which brings in over $1B in revenue per year. If true Apple could recover its $3.2B in a few years. 

Others say they bought the company for the people that run the company- Jimmy Iovine and Dr. Dre. Apple has done this kind of thing before with much smaller acquisitions. 

Still others say it is for the streaming music service started by Beats. They say Beats has high free-to-paid customer conversion ratios. This may be true but they also have low numbers of subscribers. Personally, I don't know a single person who has or is even talking about their music service. 

While these are all good reasons and might be part of Tim Cook's reasoning, I think there is one more obvious reason that has not been mentioned yet. 

When was the last time you saw these?

(There is supposed to be a picture of a young hip looking college student sporting the iconic white corded headphones of an iPhone, BUT they are so unpopular I couldn't find a good pic in less than 2 minutes on Google so I gave up) 

My point is you never see people walking around or working out at the gym with the stock Apple headphones anymore. 

Now type "cool headphones" into Google images and this is the first pic that comes up - in less than 2 seconds. 

So here's the bottom line. I think most people who purchase an iPhone or iThing don't use the included headphones for more than a few days. I never used the included headphones at the gym or on the go because they didn't stay put in my ears and I never thought they sounded good - despite the Steve Jobs distortion field telling us they were amazing. 

I think one day Tim Cook said -"No one uses our headphones because they stink." So they went out and bought the best and coolest headphone company in the world. 

Now for my first tech prediction...

I read recently Nike has just  laid off a huge portion of its wearables/fitness employees. I doesn't make sense to me that they would pull away from a fledgling market without some clear reason- like a massive product failure or massive financial losses relates to wearables. 

Whenever something doesn't seem to make sense it usually because there is more info that you are not aware of. 

To quote a smiling Inigo Montoya as he was losing badly at swordplay to the Man in Black- "because I know something you don't know." (Turns out he was not left handed and he lost anyway, but you get then point).  

I think that something we don't know is that Nike has opted to join forces with Apple and abandon its own hardware in favor of the expected iWatch. This makes all the sense in the world to me. Apple is perhaps the worlds premiere hardware company. Nike just can't compete in this arena once the iWatch comes out. It's a simple case of " if you can't beat em, join em."

That's pretty much a lock. You can take it to the bank. You heard it here first ...

Stay tuned for my next rock solid prediction related to the Beats by Dre rumored acquisition. 

Links:

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/04/21/tech/mobile/nike-apple-fuel-band/